November 14, 2015 by wimvincken
What followed after the terror attack of blowing up the Russian airliner, the terror attack on Paris might not come as unexpected. ISIS is clearly changing their ways by including terror attacks on soft targets, preferable not in or from the US. They know what their response will be if they would hit the Americans that way.
Islamic extremism is flourishing in the Middle East and Northern Africa unopposed. Several parties, like the US and its coalition of countries and the Russians are bombing people in the region. The US and coalition is focusing on the ISIS, while the Russians are focusing on the opponents of Assad, which might include the ISIS too.
The US is responding to the Russian adventure with the normal ‘game of chess‘ by moving pieces to the field and Russia is responding the same way. While those manoeuvrings are taking place, the ISIS is responding by using terror outside it’s battle fields by blowing up an airplane and attacking the city Paris with more then 140 death citizens and counting and it only cost them $7,500! France, understandable, is screaming and using the words “… war crime …” and “… act of war …“, but that’s normal. The France screamed the same after the last attack in Paris the beginning of 2015 by the ISIS and not much had changed or happened. What are they going to do? Send France soldiers to fight the ISIS? No, they sent a couple of airplanes near Syria with a couple of bombs and some ships and that’s it. The ISIS knows this, the US and the Russians knows this, and everyone else who followed their history knows this.
But what can be done to stop these kind of attacks? Talking does not help, because there is nothing to talk with. Shooting at them does also not help, because for this to happen, they need to “put boots on the ground” as the Americans like to call that. Dropping a couple of bombs on Syria is nice and maybe pretty looking on TV, but it doesn’t help as well. No, something drastic must happen before that kind of attacks and terror can stop.
Treating this whole fiasco as some sort of upheaval in the Middle East by some militants is one way to approach the whole mess in the Middle East. Another way to treat this mess is by declaring the war against it. Both scenarios are not attractive and both of them cost a high price in resources and human lives.
It’s not likely that the world will react by declaring a war against the ISIS and the like. It’s dangerous. And it cost too much. No, it’s very likely that everything stays as it is. Well, if that’s the case, then Europe needs to prepare for even bigger terror attacks with much more victims before they are forced to make their move.
But what’s going to happen next?
Oh, there will be furious sounds coming from France when the number of death increases and sounds of support and many crocodile tears from all over the world, and probably France airplanes drop a couple of more bombs in Syria and send some ships from France to Syria, but that’s it. France, Europe, the US and the Russians know that the ISIS will take a break in the terror campaign. Just like the previous attack on France at the beginning of 2015. ISIS knows that they are reasonable safe against revenge. And who cares if they lose some militants? They have enough.
There is something really spooky happening at the moment.
Assad started the process and the ISIS increased it, with the help of Iran. Now Russia is helping it and guess what? The waves of millions of Arabs being forced to leave their villages and cities and are on the run like herds of animals. Many of them managed to escape Syria and millions of them are situated in the neighboring countries, all of it financed by the UN and the international community and the local countries themselves. Hundreds of thousands of those refugees are streaming northward to Europe and hoping to find a better future. And if you think that the ISIS is only laughing? Well, they do indeed, but they take care that many ISIS sympathizers are part of those refugees.
Then there is a stream of millions of people from Africa, who are trying to escape the worsening economical situation in their villages and cities and move northwards towards Europe and act like Lemmings. Many of them die on their way, but waves after waves of human refugees keep coming. It’s even big business in their areas where human life is less worth then flies.
All of those refugees are causing several problems. First of all, it helps destabilize the European Union. Who are taking all those refugees in? And that’s not all. What about the rest of the refugees, who keep coming without a break and the stream is very likely to become a river and maybe a flood wave. What to do against them?
Secondly, the last two major terror attacks against citizens in Paris are performed by people coming from the Middle East and currently millions of those same people are waiting to be accepted by their governments. You don’t need to be a genius to predict what will happen next? With so many Muslims, the possibility of a paralyzing mega-terror attack becomes very likely.
And lastly, thirdly, the real reason might be blackmail.
- ISIS can threaten to execute the terror mega attack on European soil in exchange for something. That’s an actual real threat.
- The Russians like what’s happening at the moment, because it undermines the military strength of the NATO.
- The Iranians like it, because it undermines a possible response for their little plans of expansionism in the Middle East.
What to do about it?
For our feeling of revenge, and for France, I would say leveling an ISIS city straight to the ground with everyone and everything in it, ‘innocents’ or not.
That little action might make us feel more satisfied … more revenged, … except that it will increase the flood of refugees dramatically. And that action will lead to an increase of terror attacks in the soft underbelly of Europe and any soft target is at risk. It will threaten the core of the democracies and it might be the basis of the next disasters, which will then happen. And that action will not really threaten or weaken or damage the ISIS.
Talking then? Political dialog? With whom? With the current Arab leaders? Political dialog for the western mind is totally different then for the Arabic mind. That will also not change.
The Russian model then? Bring a bunch of planes and tanks and troops at a certain location within Syria and drop some more bombs? That will also not working well, because they take the risk for accidents with the Russians.
Maybe a no-fly zone over Syria? Too late for that and it cost an enormous effort to accomplish that. Now the Russians are in their way.
Currently, the Syria situation is in the process of a weapon race. First the Russians brought their troops and bombers into Syria. The US responded by bringing some ’50 special forces’ nearby. Then the Russians increased their troops. Then the US increased their attack airplanes specifically designed to threaten the Russian bombers. The Russians responded stupidly with bringing the S400 anti-aircraft weapons in Syria (which is next to Israel, specialized shooting all those rockets out of the sky). Now it’s waiting for the US what they will do next. In the mean while the NATO is responding also with encircling Russia with a thin layer of troops and strategical US assets are moving closer to Russia and the US is installing everywhere anti-rocket systems to stop a possible nuclear attack from Russia. Israel is fitted with many new units and weapons.
The situation of ISIS is now much more complicated and if things continue to happen as it is now, the ISIS will only become a small irritating spot somewhere in the Middle East! If something might happen in the Middle East, the Russians will be easily wiped out there with their old weapon systems and the few troops. But the fallout of such conflict will be having a bigger impact worldwide of course. I also don’t think that the US, with or without Obama, has a choice not to respond very strongly against the Russians if they go too far in Syria. After the western debacle of the Ukraine, the US has not the luxury to stay on the sidelines. The typical thing from the president is lacking here. He is silent and let the US military ‘talk’.
So … what to do about it? Nothing of course and let the chess players do their job by moving their little peaces over the board in the Middle East, Africa, Europe now and soon the Far East as well.