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The Consequences of Obama’s Foreign Policy

15

December 8, 2015 by wimvincken

More then a year ago, many people have predicted what will happen with the policies of Obama and they were (mostly) right. It’s not hard to predict the failure of an Obama’s ‘incremental stepping strategy’ to destroy the ISIS. A strategy with so many related and depending factors based on so many independent sources with their own agendas and strategies is automatically doomed to fail. There is no such thing as a successful complex strategy which succeeds, they all fail.

As the consequence of its complexity, many have wondered what Obama’s overall strategy was, not seeing the full picture. President Obama was never be able to explain to the American people and the world what his overall strategy exactly was. Only after analyzing what he has actually tried, it becomes now clear what the man tried to accomplish. I’m not impressed at all.

It’s clear that President Obama is the chief architect of this strategy and that he ignored the advice of knowledgeable people. It’s also clear to me that President Obama was and is assisted by an exceptional competent team of specialists, especially the military and the secret services, who could mostly handle the profoundly unrealistic objectives. Also it’s clear that the tireless efforts of his remarkable diplomatic team to try to implement his unrealistic policy is highly regarded for their efforts. Thanks to the efforts of those dedicated professionals, the White House is still in one piece and the US is (almost) safe … for now.

Now that it’s clear what President Obama tried to accomplish, the reality of the situation is becoming more apparent. There are two aspects, which need to be investigated:

  1. What exactly is the damage his strategy has caused?
  2. What are the consequences?

Damage

The complexity of Obama’s strategy caused confusion all over the world and America’s dignity was severely damaged. Many people got the impression that the President is weak. Those in the know or in understanding, decided quickly not to join the President in his adventures, not wishing to be part of the consequences of failure, which was easy to predict from the beginning, many years ago. Those were many European and Arab countries, but that was Russia and China as well. Those last two countries would not consider to join the Obama wagon anyway, but they could manipulate the sequences of Obama’s ‘stepping’ strategy.

Other parties, like the Islamic extremist groups such as ISIS, reacted obviously overjoyed, because they interpreted the strange, complex behavior of the President as weakness as well. They were theorizing that when a powerful country like the United States was acting foolishly like it did in the Middle East and everywhere else in the world, was decadent and perverted, just like their religious texts have prophitized 1,600 years ago. They felt empowered and strongly increased their efforts to build an Islamic State and to murder, execute and fight against … well, anyone. Everyone could see what they were doing … nothing to hide.

As a kind of side project, the American diplomatic efforts towards several allies were damaged by President Obama personally. For example the way how Egypt was treated by President Obama is quite bizarre, especially when Egypt was integrated in his grand plan, and President Obama didn’t like the new regime. The same was the case for countries like Jordan. The Jordan King was rudely treated in Washington and left deeply insulted when he asked Obama for ammunition to be able to fight in Obama’s bombing coalition. The way how President Obama treated their ‘strongest’ ally Israel with insults, curses and restrictions is beyond believe and understanding. The way how he tried to bully Turkey also didn’t help his strategy at all. The way how he treated the chemical weapon crisis in Syria was acting like an amateur at least. Obama’s lack of knowledge and experience in diplomatic etiquette, insults, curses, childish demarcations and ignorance led to strong decreasing influence of America in the Middle East.

The Syrian civil war peaked with the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian authorities. President Obama gave a red line not to use those weapons on civilians again, which was promptly broken by Syrian President Assad. President Obama didn’t retaliate or punish the guilty party, and promptly lost the initiative and control over the conflict, resulting in hundreds of thousands dead citizens and millions of refugees. This was a very embarrassing situation for America. Russia under leadership of President Putin took advantage of the impotency of President Obama.

With that same behavior and attitude as used in the Middle East, he had dealings with the governments of Russia and China, and not to forget Iran. The Russians started immediately a campaign of vicious humor in Russia itself after President Putin met President Obama personally, because they also got the impression of weakness of the President. President Putin was also astonished by the ignorance and arrogance of the President, and he exploited this to its limit, as we all can see in Russian’s adventures in Ukraine and Syria and testing the limits of the NATO. China was triggering the game of exploring the patience and willingness of the American navy and see how far they would go.

Iran is a separate story. President Obama wanted – whatever the costs – an agreement with Iran about their development of a nuclear weapon. President Obama’s starting point before the negotiations was no nuclear development at all, and he ended up with an agreement, which would give the world a break for 10-15 years before Iran would be legally allowed to develop what it want, causing damage to American’s few allies like Israel and a new weapon race in the Middle East. There are not many examples in the history where a superpower would negotiate with a country under a continues barrage of threats, curses and insults.

In the mean while, the US led coalition was maintaining an expensive bombing campaign targeting the ISIS, and hoping that the Syrian President Assad would disappear, which of course didn’t happen. The US, together with some Gulf States like Saudi Arabia were arming their flavor of Islamic extremists, while Assad was using increasingly Iran and their flavor of Islamic extremists, while Russia supplied the diplomatic protection. Russia became more involved in Syria and sent airplanes and warships and enlarged their military base. Those Russian units didn’t focus on ISIS particularly, but on all opponents of President Assad (especially the Islamic extremists, which were supported by the US and Saudi Arabia). After the crisis between Turkey and Russia when Turkey shot down a Russian bomber, the tensions went further up and the Russians sent their S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft rocket systems, together with more tanks and more ships. France had already a carrier group on its way to Syria and the US is joining the French carrier group with two additional ones, leading to a standoff at the end of this year between Russia and US with France. The US responded to the S-400 rocket systems with specific 5th generation aircraft to overcome the S-300 and S-400 rocket systems if needed and the Russians responded again with more troops in Syria and Russian artillery. Until now, the NATO is not involved, but that might rapidly change.

Islam goes through the normal social and religious cycles to adulthood, resulting into changes. A religion like Christianity had also development cycles; for example the Christian church decided to interpret the bible literally (about 1,000 years ago) instead of using their own interpretation, which resulted in an almost immediate reduction of Christian religious violence. The same for Islam, but here we can distinguish four development cycles, which started in the 1960s and 1970s as part of a broader religious resurgence in the Muslim world surging from the margins towards the mainstream. The second cycle started in the 1990s with the renewed violent militancy, caused by repressed social growth from the first cycle. Phase three started end of the 1990s, which target of the Islamic Extremism was now global with the important role of Osama bin Laden’ al-Qaida, which peaked with the 9/11 attack on the US. Phase 4 started with the aftermath of the Arab spring, the hideous violence of Syria, the failure of Iraq (and of western policy making in the Middle East), regional squabbles, renewed Shia vs Sunni Islam competition and the rise of Islamic State. The current wave of terrorism is not coming out of nowhere, but it’s born 40 years back in history and it’s called Islamic Extremism. The triggers for the social changes goes back to 610, when Islam was created and the reaction against waves of western imperialism in the Islamic world, starting at 1798 (for more about this, look at the History of Islamic States).

In most of the countries with a Muslim minority, tensions are rising. With the Islamic social changes, certain parts of the Muslim society needs to express their religion in more traditional ways (for the point of view of the natives they see it as radicalization). With the association of Islamic extremists and Muslims, the radicalization of part of the Muslims, the growing support towards Islamic extremism, social problems are becoming problematic and chaotic. The Europeans never tried seriously to integrate the Muslim minorities in their societies. For example there are large Muslim ghettos surrounding major European cities, Muslim minorities demanding (and getting it too) Sharia law, uncontrolled incitement against western civilization and much more. Many confused and radicalized Muslims are escaping their host country and want to join the ISIS and its Islamic State.

President Obama considers labeling Islamic in connection with extremism an insult to Islam and he forced this as the official policy of the United States. He assumes this as the truth, while everyone – including the Muslim world – is terrible confused by his strange logic; everyone knows that Islamic extremism is related to Islam. America’s dignity took another dive down.

Obama’s coalition of more then 60 countries to “destroy” the ISIS started fine, but it’s not working according the objectives by Obama and the coalition. First of all, the United States is doing the main part of the bombing and most of the rest of the countries only gave their support. Secondly, a few Arab countries as part of the coalition have pulled out their resources and thirdly, the whole bombing campaign is being micromanaged by President Obama personally with his administration with almost impossible restrictions for his pilots. The objective – as was stated by Obama – is not being accomplished at all: the destruction of ISIS. In the contrary, ISIS was and is fine and is not even contained, able to spread – under the bombardment of the coalition – throughout Syria, Iraq and to Africa, and mostly unopposed. Tens of thousands of Islamic extremists are killed and tens of thousands of new Islamic extremists are popping up from all over the world. In order to destroy the ISIS, bombardment is not enough, there must be an army (boots on the ground) to actually fight and hold the territory and allow civil administration to resume again. Everyone knew this, but President Obama’s strategy dictated that he assumed that Arab and Muslim states would take care for the troops, which turned out to be wishful thinking. Even with that crucial setback, Obama is not flexible enough or willingly to change his strategy, he simply continues to waste billions of dollars for no other purpose then to embarrass himself, his administration and the United States of America.

Despite the bombings, the ISIS was able to spread its military influence through Iraq, Syria, Libya and affiliated itself with several other Islamic extremist groups in Africa and several other places in the world. With the failing American strategy and lack of any results, and the success story of the ISIS, the support of the ISIS grew and currently is still growing daily. Today, 11.5% of all Muslims worldwide are supporting the ISIS in various levels. Some analysts said that the majority of the Muslims don’t support ISIS, and that’s true, only 11.5%, but this percentage means 42 million Muslims who supports the ISIS in different levels. They have more fighters then the US has bombs. The growth of Islamic extremism went sky-high, resulting in a constant stream of daily terror attacks (8 attacks a day with an average of 75 dead citizens) all over the world. Since the last months, Islamic extremism managed to strike in highly publicized terror attacks in Lebanon, Sinai (Russian airplane), France (Paris) and the United States (San Bernardino).

The reaction of the European populations, and the panicked reactions of their governments proved how much unprepared they were to handle this kind of terror, even when they were uncountable times warned this could happen. Without any working global strategy, those governments are in deep trouble. The way how the European governments are handling their Muslim refuges in their countries is disastrous and potentially dangerous. It’s very common that rape epidemics occur.

The situation in the United States is a bit different. The United States is already under attack by terrorists for some time now. Locally, those terrorists express themselves mainly in mass shootings by mentally disturbed people, extreme right-, national- and Christian- extremists. Examples are school shootings, abortion clinic shootings, shootings at churches, etc. Islamic terrorists hit the United States a few times (until now), even when those terror attacks were not acknowledged as Islamic terror at first. The American authorities are doing a good job to protect the nation against Islamic terror attacks, and the results are clearly noticeable; no attacks (except two). But the pressure on the US security keeps climbing and it’s a question of time that the United States will get hit by Islamic terror attacks again.

Currently, the American public starts to notice what the world already noticed for months, the strategy and policies of President Obama are not working at all. The results of the failed strategy of President Obama are coming home in the form of terror attacks. President Obama’s inflexible stand of his foreign policies is causing the American public to get nervous and loose confidence in their president. Candidates of the Presidential elections are using the political weakness of Obama to gain momentum and votes, and some of those candidates go to the extremes with their statements, like Donald Trump, who wants to refuse any Muslim entry to the United States. And guess what? Those outrageous statements get a large support by the American population! Just like what in France happened, where the left-wing government is loosing political capital, it will be very likely that the same will happen in the United States. Then there will be a Republican dominated Senate and a Republican President.

Consequences

The consequences of the failed strategy and foreign policies from President Obama results in hundreds of thousands of civilians worldwide being shot, bombed, beheaded, stoned, buried alive, crucified, raped, enslaved, forced pedophilia, gang-raped, hanged, gassed, forced cannibalism and many other forms of suffering. Furthermore, millions of people are driven from their homes and countries and are staying in overloaded refugee camps, managed by the UN. Within Syria, there are millions of desperate refugees on the run without shelter and protection. Multiple genocides are taking place at this moment.

In the news, tens of thousands of refugees are attempting to move to Europe, where they are received with mixed reactions. In combination with the attacks from Islamic extremists in Europe and the US, together with the thousands of Muslim refugees and the fear of infiltration of terrorists, leads to resentment and unrest in the host countries. The number of refugees are likely to rise in the coming months to record numbers.

The constant stream of terror attacks on civilians and countries all over the world are increasing to new heights and records.

The rise of the Islamic extremists is also not stopped and it grows unopposed. They explore new countries and together with terror-supported states like Iran they will find new states to infect. The search of weapons of mass-destruction is something those Islamic extremists are seeking as well.

This all continues unhindered and unopposed and it will continue for some time … until it explodes into something much worse. Are you willingly to celebrate Christmas, when there is not enough money to feed the millions of refugees and they are starving and freezing to death? Or that terror attacks explode around you? Or that the ISIS or other Islamic extremists managed to kill a couple of thousands of people somewhere? Or that the Islamic extremists manage to execute a mega-terror attack? And that your leader, the President of the United States is crying on TV, but can’t come with a solution and stubbornly continues as what he’s been doing for many months now? Or do you think that further radicalization of America’s public is needed to protect themselves against … people like President Obama!?

Conclusion

The question you probably ask or consider is, why blame President Obama’s strategy and policies? The answer is simple. Obama’s strategy and policies was and is the only initiative available right now and it’s failing. We don’t have any other policy, which will cope with the rising threat.

The solution? I think we all know what the solution is.

  1. Go with a strong international army into the Middle East (Syria, Iraq) and Africa and remove the ISIS and other Islamic extremists from their territories. Kill them.
  2. Occupy those territories with another army and allow the UN to (re)build their nations

It’s a long-term project, but that’s the only way to stop the growth of Islamic extremism and the slaughter of civilians.

If nothing happens, Islamic Extremism ideology will win, democracies will change, our way of life will be restricted and world populations will radicalize and we get a huge social fight on our head.

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15 thoughts on “The Consequences of Obama’s Foreign Policy

  1. Bertus Vriend says:

    Excellent article. Good thoughts and well researched. It’s the best I’ve read since the beginning of this mess.
    I’m a bit surprised that you don’t mention the WW3.

    Like

    • Jan and Co. says:

      I agree, I think we are in WW3.
      Good blog by the way. Excellent written. You’re Dutch, not?

      Like

    • Bobby says:

      I agree with the two gentlemen. It’s the best analysis I’ve read for a long time.
      I understand that you are an analyst for the Washington Post?

      Like

    • Wim Vincken says:

      The WW3 is out of context here.
      The Pope believes that we are in the middle of a WW3, only in a bit different form then the WW1 and WW2. Some military analysts are saying the same. According the definition of a World War, we are indeed in the Word War number 3.

      Like

  2. The King says:

    It’s scary as hell when this is true. If Obama is micromanaging the bombing campaign in Syria, and micromanaging the building up of armed forces and fleets near Syria, what will he do when America gets attacked?

    Like

    • Wim Vincken says:

      That’s actually a valid point. Look for example at the Korea situation. If North Korea would attack South Korea with nuclear weapons, what would the US do? Normally, they would retaliate immediately, but the final decision is with Obama and suddenly I’m not so sure he would do that.
      And the worse thing is if North Korea would sustect that the US would not retaliate, then they would be more willingly to launch such attack.
      The mindset of Obama is not a good one for a country like America. He would do good in a country like Holland.
      His management of the US military is disgusting. A civilian, who tries to micromanage any military action, like in Syria and with the fleet as well. His micromanagement practices is now threatening the safety of the fleet and disturbs naval tactics and strategies.

      Like

  3. Pi says:

    Excellent insights, excellent article. I agree with Jan and Co, you are Dutch, noticing your writing style. But a good article. I’m curious what will happen next.

    Like

    • Wim Vincken says:

      Thank you. Th next articles will be about Trump and the relationship between the American public and him. Also, just like in Europe, we see a public, which is being radicalized. You hear it on the streets and when you read the remarks and comments on media sites on the Internet.
      Reading the articles in the media about Trump, especially the Muslim reactions, I must laugh. Why can they radicalize, but the US not?

      Like

  4. Stevens says:

    Well, Dutchman. You did it. An excellent article I must say. I agree with most of it and some of your analysis was insightful and changed my perspective.

    The thing what’s going on, and I didn’t find it in your article is about the statements of Trump and the radicalization of the American public. There is no connection between those two. But maybe there will be a follow-up article about that subject, maybe?

    Like

  5. Bastens says:

    I’m worried what’s going to happen now. I mean those millions of refugees are there in those camps and I’ve read many of those refugees are in cities of their host countries. There seems not to be a solution soon in Syria and Iraq, so what happens with this refugees? I know some do care, but the rest not. The passivity os that situation worries me.

    Like

    • Wim Vincken says:

      Yes, I agree. It’s a serious problem for those refugees. There are millions massing together in surrounding countries and causing hardship for themselves, the host countries and the UN, which is running out of money to support them.
      The worst of everything is that nobody can say when their problems will be solved. The situation in Syria doesn’t help and a solution for that country seems not to be on the horizont.

      Like

  6. Iceman says:

    The human cost for such a dope. It’s unbelievable, an we see that history is repeating itself many times and again, this is not an exception.
    Good job writing this.

    Like

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