Some Corona trends

Scientists with their fancy computer models were THE fashion a couple of weeks ago, predicting doom and destruction. Now the facts and results are showing that they were plain wrong. Not a little bit, no … all of their predictions. Instead of using statistical models based on mathematical algorithms, you use data-analyses (of the historical data). You try to discover data-trends and that is something possible.

Some remarks here. For this pandemic, which covers the pandemic in 210 countries, mentioning only one death- and recovery rate for all is foolish. If you take all the cases, recoveries and death on a worldwide scale, and calculate the rates, that rate does not apply on one single country, but only over the grand total. Such rate is confusing and wrong. If I would be their boss, I would fire them instantly and ask their parents to get their school money back.

Here is an example of their ‘accuracy’:

Above is a table of relevant corona-information for the US. I marked two lines (A and B), which indicates the numbers of death. The period of reports (April 12 until April 22, 2020) are within historical data (no predictions here) and I included a scientific model (line A) in this table to see if they are right or not at all or only partly right.

Line A are the predictions from the models and line B are the actual number of people who died. As you see, not one day had its match. Worse, some days the differences are several thousands of people.

I personally can ‘doctor’ the model until it’ll be a tight match and can indicate peaks, but when I try that method with another country, that doctoring doesn’t match at all … again. Conclusion: there is no all-in-one computer model to predict anything, neither that per individual country.

The peak in new infections and death are related

A peak in data means a new sharp increase of new cases (infections or death). Those peaks are related with each other. There will be no death unless there are infections before. Another point between this is that there is a delay between the moment of infection and the moment of death.

The cells in red indicates infections and the cells in black indicates death.

For the Ukraine this is three days of delay, and the for the US this is 12 days. But the situation of the US is particular different, because between the waiting period there are three days with infection peaks (but not the highest ones).

This trend is the same for each country, except for the lag-time between the two peaks. You might explain it that in the US the medical care might be better, so dying takes longer.

Phase I to Phase II with problems and setbacks

Phase I is the phase, which lead to the moment with the highest new infections (the peak) and phase II goes in recovery, where we don’t see any new peaks occurring until no infections at all.

But when a country had recently a high peak, it’s in stage II and (administrative) recovery starts. The issue is the risk of a backslash and a new peak appears suddenly. Historical data can indicate that.

In the case of Russia, you see that the record number of new infections occurred in the past (April 19, 2020) (the red cell), but it has two aftershocks (April 21 and 22) and not to mention the other one at April 18! That looks unstable and it is.

By the way, we can expect a peak in the number of death three days after the infection peak:

And indeed. Three days lagging time seems to be for Russia, but this time chances the moment that Russia gets more stable and in stage II.

In Pakistan, they can expect a peak in the number of death at April 24th. And also here the situation is too unstable and can likely expect a setback and a new peak in infections.

No new infections?

Yes, you read it correctly.

As you can see in the growth rate of the corona-infections, five instances already of 0% growth rate. Those countries are China (whatever their data is worth), Egypt, France, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan.

Taiwan had five days of no new infection reported. But that didn’t mean that the Taiwanese didn’t test for corona infections:

But the sixth day they discovered 22 new infections.

Taiwan had its peak March 25, 2020.

That’s the result of fast response of the pandemic from the beginning and a herd-approach: no shutdown of the economy and motivated population to fight or avoid the coronavirus, while protecting the elderly and sick in the population. A true success story.

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