How far is the pandemic?

Statistical computer models for the sake of getting relevant information about the corona pandemic (and for that matter, the weather prediction too) do not work reliable. They don’t give the specific information what we need. Does that mean that we don’t know when the pandemic will be finished, globally and locally? No. We can quite easily calculate how far the pandemic is, and with that, we can calculate the end date.

But before we do that, some remarks:

  • For the pandemic to end, there must be not one person infected, no more people dying because of the corona and all corona-related people in the hospitals and isolations being recovered (and released). Only then the pandemic is finished.
  • That means that we need to take care that the people in the hospital are treated and released when cured. For many countries this seems to be a serious problem.
  • But with historical data, we can calculate the gap between those who were/are infected (cases) and deduct the recovered and death.
    • For example, the United States has 855,127 (4/29/20) active cases (those infected), 1,064,194 cases and that means 19.65% are ‘processed’. The rest must wait to be recovered and die.
    • For Ukraine, it has 8,513 (4/29/20) active cases, 9,866 cases and that means 13.71% are ‘processed‘. The rest must wait to be recovered and die.

Another word for ‘processed’ is also completed (so far).

Here follows a list of countries with those percentages:

NoCountriesComplete
1China99%
2India93%
3Australia87%
4Korea (S)86%
5Austria85%
6Singapore85%
7Iran85%
8Switzerland83%
9Hong Kong80%
10Germany79%
11Malaysia78%
12Denmark76%
13Taiwan74%
14Ireland72%
15Luxembourg70%
16Spain66%
17Finland61%
18Israel53%
19Brazil50%
20Italy49%
21Canada45%
22Czechia44%
23France43%
24Turkey40%
25Belgium39%
26Argentina33%
27Ecuador33%
28Panama32%
29Philippines29%
30Iceland29%
31Greece28%
32Colombia27%
33Norway24%
34Dominican Republic23%
35Indonesia22%
36UAE20%
37Japan20%
38US20%
39Peru19%
40Sweden17%
41UK16%
42Ukraine14%
43Mexico13%
44Portugal11%
45Pakistan11%
46Poland10%
47Egypt10%
48Russia8%
49Netherlands3%

As we can see of the above 49 countries, the US is on the 38th place.

Also be aware, that those percentages will change dynamically day-by-day. The reason for those changes is lower-infection rates, more people recovered, more death or a government of population is doing stupid or bright.

Here you see the temperature chart of those percentages:

Completion last 15 days, April 30, 2020
Completion last 15 days, April 30, 2020

By the way, if you want to see the data in detail and the multiple trends, you can download the (latest) spreadsheet here:

But we can go one step further. With calculating the completeness of the corona pandemic in a country or globally, we can also calculate the date that the pandemic will be finished (worldwide or locally). That list might shock you.

NoCountryCompleteEnd Date
1Norway3.1%8/19/2025
2Singapore7.7%8/1/2023
3Ecuador9.9%3/31/2022
4Panama10.6%10/9/2021
5Portugal10.0%9/16/2021
6UK16.0%8/9/2021
7Russia11.3%7/27/2021
8Sweden17.1%7/5/2021
9Japan20.0%6/22/2021
10Netherlands12.8%6/19/2021
11US19.6%6/7/2021
12Ukraine13.7%4/22/2021
13UAE20.3%4/20/2021
14Philippines19.3%12/11/2020
15Poland28.9%12/6/2020
16Indonesia22.3%11/17/2020
17Dominican Republic22.9%11/14/2020
18Pakistan24.3%11/11/2020
19Greece27.8%10/9/2020
20India28.8%9/26/2020
21Colombia27.2%9/20/2020
22Egypt32.6%9/8/2020
23Belgium39.2%9/7/2020
24France43.5%8/31/2020
25Argentina32.8%8/23/2020
26Canada45.2%8/22/2020
27Peru32.4%8/11/2020
28Italy48.6%8/2/2020
29Czechia44.0%7/13/2020
30Turkey40.1%7/12/2020
31Brazil50.0%7/1/2020
32Israel53.4%6/27/2020
33Finland61.3%6/25/2020
34Spain66.4%6/13/2020
35Taiwan73.9%6/2/2020
36Mexico77.6%5/26/2020
37Germany78.5%5/24/2020
38Malaysia70.4%5/24/2020
39Hong Kong80.3%5/22/2020
40Ireland72.0%5/22/2020
41Denmark75.6%5/19/2020
42Luxembourg85.5%5/17/2020
43South Korea85.2%5/15/2020
44Austria86.7%5/13/2020
45Switzerland82.7%5/12/2020
46Australia85.3%5/10/2020
47Iran85.1%5/9/2020
48Iceland92.7%5/6/2020
49China99.3%4/30/2020
50Algerian/an/a

Some notes about the above table and the manner of calculations.

  • The calculations are not accurate.
    1. The actual data are entered manually in the spreadsheet and not be a data-feed automatically inserted and calculated. It’s possible I made copy-paste mistakes.
    2. The data are supplied by unknown means by many countries. I’ve no idea if those numbers are complete, incomplete, or correct.
    3. Many countries refuse to supply data about the recovery of their citizens for unknown reasons. That looks so incredible bad for the countries in question (like the Netherlands, UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland). That has an direct impact in the calculations of those countries about the completeness or processed numbers and percentage.
  • I know the date of the first case of the coronavirus infection and in this way I know how many days has passed with the corona pandemic. It’s a simple thing to calculate the end date.

Worldwide, the number of cases are 3,218,184 (less than flu), 1,990,121 infected, and 38.2% complete.

ContinentComplete
Europe45.8%
North America21.7%
Asia54.1%
South America39.4%
Africa37.7%
Oceania85.1%
World38.2%

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