When is a country corona virus free?

Spooky corona virus

A country is corona virus free when there are no infections taking place, no one dies from and by the virus and all people are released from hospitals, corona-hotels and isolation. Then you can say the country is virus free … except when an infected foreigner arrives …

At the time of writing, there are a few countries free of virus (Falkland Islands, Greenland, St. Barth and Anguilla), but the rest of the 208 countries and territories are not. And that takes a while before that happens. In some cases it will happen this month, next month and in some cases next year.

How can you know when a country is free of the virus?

It’s simplier then you might think. For this you need to calculate. But before that, I explain it in a simplier way.

  1. Let’s say, a country X has 400 cases.
    1. Furthermore, 70 are people who are recovered.
    2. And 30 people died.
    3. The country suffers from corona (first case of infection) 80 days ago.
    4. The first case of the corona virus fell on January 4, 2020.
  2. The active cases are the cases-recovered-death.
    1. In our example, 400-70-30=300.
  3. Originally, we had 400 cases, and 100 cases don’t have the corona virus anymore, meaning 25% of all cases are gone.
    1. Meaning that the pandemic is 25% processed and we have 75% to go.
  4. With 25% of the cases processed in 80 days, we calculate the full duration:
    1. Calculate 1% of the 80 days, which is 3.2 days.
    2. Multiply the 3.2 days to the 100% to get the total duration.
    3. (80 / 25 = 3.2) * 100 = 320 days
  5. And when is the country free of the virus?
    1. January 4, 2020 + 320 days = November 19, 2020.

Will this predict the guaranteed end date of the virus? No.

What I call the completion, or the people who are processed (recovered or died), is calculated each day, and the result of that calculation depends on the number of infections, the number of people recovered and the people who died. That means that this percentage of completion or processed differers from day to day.

Also there is another calculation, which gives a more indepth picture of what’s going on. That’s the average increase (or decrease) of the completion (or processed).

The next table displays a sorted list of countries per percentage of completion:

NoCountriesComplete
1China99%
2Iceland94%
3Austria88%
4Luxembourg87%
5Korea (S)87%
6Switzerland86%
7Australia86%
8Iran86%
9Hong Kong83%
10Germany81%
11Denmark77%
12Taiwan77%
13Malaysia71%
14Ireland70%
15Mexico69%
16Spain69%
17Finland64%
18Israel58%
19Greece58%
20Italy51%
21Brazil48%
22Canada47%
23Czechia47%
24Turkey47%
25France45%
26Belgium40%
27Argentina33%
28Egypt32%
29Poland32%
30Peru30%
31India30%
32Colombia27%
33Pakistan26%
34Japan24%
35Dominican Republic23%
36Indonesia23%
37UAE20%
38US20%
39Philippines19%
40Sweden17%
41UK16%
42Ukraine16%
43Netherlands13%
44Russia13%
45Panama12%
46Ecuador11%
47Portugal10%
48Singapore8%
49Norway3%

The next table is the table with the percentage or completion and the average increase/decrease of the completion per day:

NoCountriesCompleteIncreate (%)
per day
1Iceland94%3.05%
2Austria88%2.80%
3Luxembourg87%2.80%
4Australia86%2.78%
5Korea (S)87%2.74%
6Switzerland86%2.70%
7Hong Kong83%2.64%
8Germany81%2.59%
9Iran86%2.52%
10Taiwan77%2.43%
11Denmark77%2.39%
12Malaysia71%2.27%
13Mexico69%2.22%
14Ireland70%2.20%
15Finland64%2.03%
16Spain69%1.94%
17Israel58%1.87%
18Greece58%1.81%
19Canada47%1.48%
20Czechia47%1.48%
21Turkey47%1.45%
22Brazil48%1.45%
23Italy51%1.24%
24France45%1.22%
25Belgium40%1.11%
26Argentina33%1.07%
27Poland32%0.97%
28Peru30%0.97%
29India30%0.96%
30Colombia27%0.85%
31Pakistan26%0.84%
32Egypt32%0.77%
33Dominican Republic23%0.75%
34Japan24%0.71%
35UAE20%0.65%
36Philippines19%0.57%
37Indonesia23%0.44%
38Sweden17%0.42%
39Russia13%0.38%
40Panama12%0.37%
41Ukraine16%0.29%
42UK16%0.28%
43Portugal10%0.27%
44Ecuador11%0.25%
45US20%0.20%
46Singapore8%0.19%
47Netherlands13%0.15%
48Norway3%0.07%
49China99%-0.13%

As you can see, both lists are totally different sorted.

The average increase of the completion indicates the folowing:

  1. Or an extreme increase of the number of new infected people was reported.
  2. Or an extreme increase/decrease of the number of recovered cases was reported.
  3. Or an extreme increase/decrease of the number of people died was reported.

The one factor, which are under control of the government is point 2, the increase/decrease of the number of recovered people. The medical infrastructure and resources can easily be managed and/or supported by the governments.

The increase of new infections might be caused by the population (not following guidelines), or unforeseen events.

An extreme increase/decrease of the number of death is connected to the peaks of new infections, which happened 2-10 days before the peak of dead cases.

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